TL;DR
Astral Codex Ten’s Open Thread 456 is a weekly community post covering meetup changes, a Boston election guide and a survey about valuing AI safety accomplishments. It also highlights a new real-money AI prediction market and a project to extend community notes across websites; the post does not provide independent verification or detailed methodology for those projects.
Astral Codex Ten published Open Thread 456, a weekly community post that gathers meetup updates, an election guide, a survey about AI safety grantmaking and notices about two projects tied to AI and online discussion. The post is a collection of announcements rather than a single reported development, and its project descriptions and market figures are presented by the blog author, not independently verified in the supplied material.
The author asks people familiar with AI and grantmaking to complete a survey assigning utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. A second, optional version asks respondents to predict how the author would answer the first survey. The post says the comparison is intended to help distinguish differences in underlying views from random variation in how people assign weights. It links to the surveys and to earlier work, but the supplied text does not provide results, a response deadline or information about how responses will be analyzed.
The thread also reports that the Boston ACX meetup group has completed a Greater Boston general election voting guide. The author says they may publish more guides and are still exploring whether a Bay Area version is possible. The post states that the San Francisco mail-in ballot registration deadline is the end of that Monday and identifies Scott Wiener for Congress as the group’s main San Francisco endorsement. It does not specify the election year in the supplied excerpt.
Other notices include meetup changes in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland and Sofia, plus an early notice for a Bay Area meetup scheduled for Saturday, Oct. 24, at 1 p.m. at Mox, 1680 Mission St. The post also describes MNX, a real-money prediction market on AI, and Common Notes, a project that aims to extend a community-notes model beyond social media.
How the Thread Connects ACX Projects
The post matters mainly as a snapshot of activity across the Astral Codex Ten community. It links local gatherings and election-related information with efforts to quantify views about AI safety funding, price expectations about AI companies and tools for adding context to online claims. Those topics bring together readers who might otherwise encounter them in separate forums.
The survey could offer a way to compare how respondents value different AI safety accomplishments, while its prediction variant is designed to help the author interpret why answers differ. That is the author’s stated purpose; the thread does not report that the method has been tested or that it will influence grant decisions. Likewise, MNX’s listed market contracts may provide one venue for trading views about AI-related outcomes, but the post does not establish how accurately its prices reflect likely outcomes.
For readers, practical details may be more immediately useful: meetup locations are changing, the Boston group has produced a voting guide, and the author flags a registration deadline. Because the dates and local details are time-sensitive, readers would need to check the linked post or relevant official sources before acting.
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A Weekly Post With Multiple Notices
Open Thread 456 follows the format described by its author: a weekly open thread where readers can post about any subject or ask informal questions. The post points readers to an unofficial subreddit, Discord, a bulletin board and in-person meetups. It also notes that most content is free while some is subscriber-only.
The announcements span several kinds of community work. The author says they are continuing efforts to model, and possibly automate, parts of AI grantmaking; the survey request is one step in gathering judgments about specific safety accomplishments. Separately, the post names Stephen Grugett, described as a grantee and Manifold Markets co-founder, in connection with MNX. It describes Goodheart Labs’ Common Notes as a system combining AI-generated notes, user-written notes and user voting, delivered through a browser extension.
The excerpt does not give a publication date, though it refers to “Monday” and “this coming Saturday, 10/24.” Those references are not enough to establish the year or confirm whether the deadline and meetup are still upcoming. The post’s references to other linked materials are not included in the supplied source text.
““Twitter Community Notes, but for everything””
— Astral Codex Ten author, describing Common Notes
Dates, Methods and Project Details
The supplied post does not state its publication date or the year for the listed Monday registration deadline and Oct. 24 meetup. It is therefore unclear from this excerpt whether those dates remain upcoming or have passed. Readers should verify current deadlines and event information with the linked organizers or official sources.
The thread does not give the survey’s sampling plan, the number of expected respondents, how utility weights will be interpreted or whether the results will be used in grantmaking. It also provides no independent assessment of MNX’s contract design or market prices, and no details on Common Notes’ launch status, moderation rules or browser-extension coverage. These descriptions should be understood as announcements in the post, not as independently confirmed performance claims.
Survey Responses and Local Updates
The next steps identified in the post are for interested readers to take the AI safety accomplishment survey and, if they have additional time, its alternate prediction version. The author says more election guides may follow and that the possibility of a Bay Area guide is still being explored. No publication schedule or decision date is given.
For local events, readers can consult the linked meetup information for changes in the seven named cities and check whether the Bay Area gathering at Mox is still scheduled as stated. The post also directs readers to MNX and Common Notes for details about those projects. It does not announce a future update date or specify when further information will be published.
Key Questions
What is Open Thread 456?
It is a weekly Astral Codex Ten community post inviting open discussion and sharing announcements about meetups, surveys, election materials and related projects.
What does the AI grantmaking survey ask?
It asks respondents to assign utility weights to about 80 AI safety accomplishments. An optional alternate version asks people to predict how the author would answer the original survey.
What election information does the post provide?
It says the Boston ACX meetup group completed a Greater Boston general election voting guide, notes that the author is considering more guides, and identifies Scott Wiener for Congress as the group’s main San Francisco endorsement. The excerpt’s election year is not specified.
What are MNX and Common Notes?
The post describes MNX as a real-money prediction market focused on AI-related contracts. It describes Common Notes, from Goodheart Labs, as a project combining AI-written and user-written notes with user voting and a browser extension.
Are the meetup and registration dates current?
The supplied excerpt refers to a Monday deadline and a Saturday, Oct. 24 meetup but does not give a publication date or year. Check current information with the relevant organizers and official election sources before relying on those dates.
Source: rss
